The Economy, Stupid
By Popper's Ghost
Yet again, for the third time in a row, the Democrats have shot themselves in the foot. Or more accurately, this time, blew it entirely off.
It's the economy, stupid.[1]
— James Carville
While the Democrats are wondering if pronouns or trans rights are what drove voters away, it was mostly the economy [2]. We saw similar hand-wringing after Hillary’s defeat when the Dem leadership wondered if perhaps the last minute extension of gay rights to marriage tanked her support amongst swing state voters. And even under Clinton, this was seen with Gore and concern that maybe “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” had been a bridge too far.
So it must be extremely discomfiting when the Democrats suddenly begin discussing if its okay to throw one of their groups under the bus to win the next election. We kinda saw this under Obama, who when pressed on gay marriage, hemmed and hawed around the issue in his usually eloquent manner. He only supported it when the issue had effectively already been decided, first by actions at the state and finally at the federal level.
As for the economy, the writing was on the wall. In the year leading up to the election, Biden has stated multiple times the economy was doing great, which was effectively gaslighting everyone who was working in it. Yes, inflation was finally brought down, the inflation was not the fault of Biden’s economic policies. But inflation also consumed a large percentage of the long overdue income gains that workers had finally attained.
We saw this under Obama, when the recovery was K-Shaped[3]. Where the rich got richer, and the lower middle class and everyone else got poorer. Wages under the Obama recovery stagnated for the poorest workers. One could argue that even under Clinton the same held true to a lesser extent, with the signing of NAFTA applying downward pressure to real wage growth.
Return-office-mandates, mass layoffs in tech, the long hours expected of nurses and doctors who stayed in their jobs post-covid, all of these were effectively ignored by the Democrats, who simply pointed to the metrics of “Number goes 📈 UP!” and said it was all good. If the economy was good for shareholders and the C-Suite, how it could it NOT be good for everyone else? Did they finally drink the trickle-down koolaid, or did they dare not tarnish Biden’s image with criticism?
Many voters felt the economy was so bad ( even women voters ), that the overturning of Roe Vs Wade could not overcome the pain, subjective or real, that was being felt. And white women in general voted at higher rates for Trump; likely because to them, the restriction on abortion access, was merely notional. Many can afford to travel to another state to have one..
For now.
If Project 2025 and JD Vance have their way[4], that may no longer be an option; even for women of privilege.
The Dem leadership will blame anything except the hand that feeds it. The billionaire class still holds sway, and even if these billionaires are progressive on many topics, the “U[5]” word is still forbidden. The Democrats could have a populist movement, if they wanted to take it, but they would likely suffer the loss of many of their biggest donors.
So now with control of the Presidency, House, and Senate, we’re left with two years of GOP control of the govt until hopefully the midterms at least put a brake on things.
But don’t hold your breath…